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Vermont is more insulated than some other northeastern states from the impacts of potential heating fuel shortages, officials say. 

The U.S. Department of Energy is warning that, due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, supplies of diesel and heating fuel are significantly lower than normal — 63% below the five-year average in New England, the Associated Press reported this week. 

But Vermont is “somewhat less reliant than other northeast states on the regional supply of those fuels that are in highest demand” — diesel fuel, fuel oil and natural gas, according to June Tierney, commissioner of Vermont’s Department of Public Service. 

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Fuel oil makes up about a third of Vermont’s thermal fuel sources, she said. The other two-thirds come from biomass, electricity and natural gas.  

“This distribution of fuel sources insulates Vermont a bit from heating sector issues,” she said in an email. 

In addition, ISO New England, which manages the regional electrical grid and is responsible for reliability, has issued a forecast for a mild to moderate winter, which “should help to keep consumption to a manageable level that supply can meet,” Tierney said. 

Some parts of New England use heating fuel that comes from the Gulf Coast, an area that could be challenged by what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts will be an active hurricane season. That would put further strain on the already-limited supply.

Much of Vermont’s supply comes from Canada, representing another layer of safety. However, if other states experience disruptions with supplies coming from the Gulf Coast and need to source heating fuel from Canada, too, prices for Vermonters could rise.

“It is reasonable to expect high prices subject to international events, market dynamics, and variance in weather trends,” Tierney said.

At his weekly press briefing, Gov. Phil Scott said he recently met with other New England governors on the issue, and they’ve planned to meet with members of the Biden administration to ask for assistance. While he expressed concern that the strain on other states could cause price hikes in Vermont, he, too, said the state’s supply is relatively safe. 

The northeastern states “are all collaborating to ensure adequate supply,” Tierney said. “The states have been in contact with DOE’s office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) to explore available options for the near- and long-term.”

No supply problems have been identified with propane, which heats around 40,000 homes, mostly in rural areas, according to Matt Cota, executive director of the Vermont Fuel Dealers Association. Another 40,000 homes rely on propane as a secondary heating source or for cooking fuel.

Cota said he’d be more concerned if the heating fuel shortage was taking place closer to winter, but this far out, he’s less worried. 

“Planning is prudent, panicking is not,” he said. 

The prospect of strong storms and the question of timing are “TBDs,” he said, “which is enough reason for the Department of Energy to say, ‘Hey, I'm just pointing out that you’re going to need more oil in those tanks if the worst of the worst happens.’” 

“I think they're absolutely right,” Cota said. “It's just that, that's the worst case scenario of all the worst case scenarios.”

Diesel and heating fuel, which are distillates made from crude oil, have been in short supply since April, Cota said. Diesel fuel produced in the United States has increasingly been exported to Europe for motor fuel and electric generation, he said.  

European nations have cut off fuel from Russia, he said, “and since distillate fuel is one of their biggies, (Europe is) relying more and more on exports from the United States.”

The good news, Cota said, is that the cost of distillate fuels is declining. The supply chain is catching up to the demand in Europe, and consumers may be less likely to stockpile with prices going down. 

Cota recommends that Vermonters exercise due diligence in planning for cold weather — getting tanks inspected early and talking to local fuel dealers about plans for the winter. Once winter comes, fuel dealers are typically stretched thin, Cota said. 

Vermonters who qualify for income-based programs can apply for Fuel Assistance Benefits through LIHEAP, Utility Energy Assistance Programs through Green Mountain Power and Vermont Gas, and home weatherization services.

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Emma Cotton is a Report for America corps member who covers the environment, climate change, energy and agriculture. Previously, she covered Rutland and Bennington counties for VTDigger, wrote for the Addison Independent and served as assistant editor of Vermont Sports and VT Ski + Ride magazines. Emma studied marine science and journalism at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida.

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